This week’s local elections have mostly been framed as a contest between two options: first, whether the Tories will be given a punishment beating by the electorate over recent scandals; or, second, whether Labour will underperform, giving a second thought to whether or not they can win big again. But there is a third dynamic concerning how the Lib Dems will do, especially how well they will perform in parts of the south of England and particularly in Tory-held constituencies that they will be targeting at the next general election.
The Lib Dems have managed some remarkable breakthroughs in recent by-elections, namely in Chesham and Amersham and North Shropshire, the latter being particularly impressive given it had always been a safe Tory seat. Those in CCHQ will be asking how serious the threat is from the Lib Dems in safe southern seats and, if there is a concern here, how best to handle it.
It is becoming increasingly clear that the Lib Dems don’t really have a national pitch.
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