Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn’t a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying “too close to call”? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts:
1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn’t need to. I can believe this – I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.
2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign – ie, even if they get spanked, they believe their organisation hit the mark. So if the election is a matter of differential turnout, the nats will win.
3. It will be a low turnout, so we may get the result quite early on tomorrow.
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