The last Brexit heave

The past few months have been characterised by high drama which, for all the excitement, has resolved nothing. We are back in a familiar cycle: posturing, bluster and a last-minute burst of Brexit talks. It’s possible that Boris Johnson will emerge with a deal and declare triumph by 31 October: he has always regarded this as possible, even likely, no matter how high the odds are stacked against it. But it’s just as likely that this will all end in failure.

If Britain does end up leaving the EU without a deal, the moment when such an outcome became inevitable will be traced back to Tuesday’s telephone call between Boris Johnson and Angela Merkel. In that call, according to No. 10, the German Chancellor said that the EU will never sign any deal that could lead to Northern Ireland leaving its customs union. She said that the so-called backstop is not negotiable.