When a Labour politician or aide stops to chat in the corridors of parliament these days, they only have one question: which leadership candidate would the Tories fear most?
The government majority of 80 means it would be hard for even the most talented Labour leader to land a House of Commons victory in the coming years, yet he or she would still have the potential to change the dynamic of this parliament — and disrupt the Tories’ hope for the 2024 election.
Right now the leadership candidates are focusing not on hurting the Tories but on wooing the MPs, trade unions and members whose support they need to win. It’s the Labour membership who will have the final say, but in order to reach this stage of the contest each candidate must first secure the backing of at least 21 MPs and then the support of either 5 per cent of local parties or three nominations from unions and affiliate groups.
Of the six candidates in the race, Emily Thornberry, Lisa Nandy and Clive Lewis look like they might struggle to clear this bar. Thornberry has done little to ingratiate herself with parliamentary colleagues, while Clive Lewis and Lisa Nandy are fishing in the same pool. When it comes to soft-left and Corbynite MPs, one leadership campaign calculates there are 70 — and a lot of these are already behind Rebecca Long Bailey.
Jess Phillips is seen as having a good chance of reaching the membership vote. However, her problem comes once she gets there. Since she entered parliament, Phillips has emerged as a strong media performer. But she has been openly critical of Corbyn — once telling his ally Diane Abbott to ‘fuck off’.
Comments
Join the debate for just £1 a month
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for £3.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just £1 a monthAlready a subscriber? Log in