The Labour arguments for a June 4th poll

The more people one speaks to the more one gets the impression that there might be an election early next year. The principal rationale for a poll in 2009 is ignoble: by 2010 the reality of recession will have caught up with Gordon Brown so he needs to go to the country before then.

There are a couple of particular attractions for June 4th—the date floated in the Evening Standard—for Labour.  June 4th is also the date of the European election, this would ease the burden on Labour’s finances—Labour can’t afford to fight serious campaigns in both and so could suffer a momentum-reversing thrashing in the European elections if it waits until 2010 for a general election. But, perhaps, more importantly, holding the two polls on the same day would dent the Tory vote; the thinking is more Tory-inclined voters would vote UKIP in the general if they were voting UKIP in the Europeans that day.