The key to No. 10

There is a piquancy. Back in 1997, Michael Howard launched a confident challenge for the Tory leadership. He had influential supporters, a good team and a strong case: that his experience and political stance made him the best qualified candidate. Yet his campaign never left the runway. The plane had too much baggage.

Suppose he had won. In organisational matters, he would have done a better job than William Hague. Could that have translated itself into serious electoral gains? Almost certainly not. The 2001 election was lost sometime around 1995. Indeed, unlike Mr Hague, Mr Howard had no illusions about the fate awaiting the new Tory leader of the opposition. He was content to volunteer to catch the hospital pass and to try to minimise the scale of the inevitable defeat.

If Michael Howard had led the Tories in 2001, William Hague would have taken over as leader and everyone would be saying that when they got back in, dear old Michael must have his reward.