It has been pushed down the news agenda by the economic crisis and by the focus on ‘AfPak’ but I still think Iran is going to be the biggest test of Obama’s presidential leadership. There are no good options when it comes to how to deal with Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. But letting Iran go nuclear would have even worse consequences than the mooted alternatives.
What is crucial is that the United States appreciates that the clock is ticking and that there is the same risk that the intelligence over-estimates how far Iran is from a bomb as there it is that it under-estimates it. Washington should remember just how cleverly Tehran used the time won by its negotiations with the Eu-3 to make progress on its nuclear programme. It is imperative that Obama’s planned diplomatic outreach, which is right and necessary—diplomatic options must be, and seen to be, exhausted before military ones are considered—happens sooner rather than later.
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