There is great excitement in some circles at a paper from the International Monetary Fund which has emerged in the past 24 hours. This piece of research warns that cutting government spending too quickly can weaken economies permanently and lead to even deeper recessions. It says:
The analysis in this paper shows that withdrawing fiscal stimuli too quickly in economies where output is already contracting can prolong their recessions without generating the expected fiscal saving. This is particularly true if the consolidation is centred around cuts to public expenditure – likely reflecting the fact that reductions in public spending have powerful effects on the consumption of financially-constrained agents in the economy – and if the size of the consolidation is large. Large consolidations made recessions more likely even when made at an expansion time.
Critics of the Treasury will pile this paper on to the pressure they are already exerting on George Osborne to change course from austerity.
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Keir Starmer has not seemed in control of the grooming gangs story since it broke, but at Prime Minister’s Questions, he had a rare period of command. This was largely because he is more adept at answering questions than Kemi Badenoch currently is at asking them, and also because the Conservative line on this matter
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