The Huntonomics trap

I don’t know who will become the next prime minister, and I’m not going to make a guess here. But I do make this prediction: the next leader is going to face a major internal Tory fight over immigration. That prediction is based on the thing that drove Liz Truss from office: the urgent need to reassure gilt markets that Britain has a growth plan that will help repair the public finances. 

That need has not gone away. It will define the government whoever leads it. That government seems very, very likely to include Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor since a new PM taking office next Friday and removing him days before his fiscal statement on 31 October would risk panicking the markets again. And we know how that ends.

There’s a decent argument that, in the short term, Hunt matters more than whichever poor soul gets saddled with the premiership next.