40 u-turns and counting, the coalition has a habit of dropping difficult policies. One notable exception is High Speed 2, which is still being keenly promoted. Today, members of a new HS2 growth task force have been announced. The advocates are an impressive selection of council leaders, academics, businessman and trade unions. Their job will be to counter the view that HS2 does not make financial sense.
As Janan Ganesh pointed out in the Financial Times yesterday (£), the government’s enthusiasm for HS2 is in marked contrast to its dithering over airport capacity. But, the public doesn’t share this enthusiasm. The last YouGov poll suggests that 46 per cent are against HS2 and 34 per cent in favour. The task force aims to convince the doubters by broadening the terms of debate, as HS2 Ltd’s Beth West explains:
‘Their collective knowledge will further strengthen our ability to make HS2 a catalyst for Britain’s future prosperity, supporting economic growth and assisting towns and cities to deliver regeneration, skills and jobs’
More importantly, both the government and other advocates of HS2 will focus on capacity – something that passengers can easily relate to. In 2011, during the morning peak, there were on average 4,000 people standing on arrival into London Euston and 5,000 people standing on arrival into Birmingham. Despite the recession, the West Coast line has seen double-digit growth — journeys have increased to and from Manchester by 20 per cent, Coventry 30 per cent, Birmingham 22 per cent, and Milton Keynes 26 per cent.
Demand is such that the West Coast mainline is expected to be overwhelmed by 2020; so what will happen when our railways are full? The alternative to HS2 — upgrading the existing West Coast line — will be expensive and ecologically damaging; and, crucially, it will offer less capacity than HS2. When expressed as a choice about capacity, the case for HS2 is simple.
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