If you’re still scratching your head over the latest opinion polls, then I’d recommend you read Anthony Wells’ latest post over at UK Polling report. In it, he outlines four potential reasons for the diminishing gap between the Tories and Labour: Cameron’s “reverse” over the Lisbon Treaty; increased economic optimism; Labour performing better; and the absence of positive feeling towards the Tories. To my mind, it’s probably a case of “all of the above,” to varying degrees – but, as Anthony concludes, “we can’t tell for sure.”
One further point that’s worth making is that the reduced gap between the parties isn’t due to a “Brown bounce”. After all – and unlike the end of last year – it’s hard to put your finger on any one action, or claimed action, on the PM’s part, which will have affected the national mood towards his government. Instead, the figures we see today are due to an incremental increase in Labour support, coupled with an incremental drop in Tory support, spread out over a couple of months.
This could be good or bad news for the Tories, depending on whether you’re a glass-half-full or glass-half-full kind of Tory supporter:
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