The fundamental flaws of NHS Test and Trace

The NHS Test, Trace and Isolate programme — which was meant to be one of our main weapons in the fight against a second Covid-19 peak — has not had a good few weeks. First, when schools went back last month, an inevitable rush for tests was not met with sufficient supply. It then emerged that 16,000 people who had tested positive had failed to be transferred to the tracing system. Not a great start.

Then, the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), for long an advocate, quietly disowned the programme, saying it is having marginal impact. Are these just teething problems as the programme gets scaled up? I’m afraid that even if there are no more glitches or shortages of tests, three fundamental strategic flaws mean it will not suppress a second wave of Covid-19.

Let’s look at the latest data available from the first week of October.