The French elite have realised that Marine Le Pen might win

You can tell that French elections are in the air because legal proceedings are being taken against a leading figure of the French right. So it was with François Fillon of the Républicain party, a key contender in the 2017 presidential elections, whose hopes of winning were dashed during the campaign by legal investigation into alleged misuse of parliamentary funds, subsequently ending his political career. So it is now with Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National, as France gears up for the 9 June 2024 European parliament elections, for which her party is the clear front-runner. This week, French investigating magistrates scheduled a hearing for 27 March 2024 to determine whether Marine Le Pen, the Rassemblement National and 27 members misused EU funds in the payment of parliamentary assistants between 2004 and 2016. If found guilty they risk ten years imprisonment, a fine of one million euros and, most significantly, ten years of ineligibility for public office.

A charitable mind might venture that this is merely the work of an overzealous self-confessed left-wing judiciary. In 2013 photographic evidence was published of a notice-board in the premises of the Syndicat de la magistrature – the leading trade union for French judges – entitled the ‘mur des cons’ (literally ‘wall of c****). It displayed pictures of leading right-wing politicians such as Nicolas Sarkozy. This summer the same trade-union was present at the French Communist party newspaper’s annual political jamboree, where it participated in a debate on institutional police violence following the June riots. Any pretence of the judiciary’s political neutrality was discarded years ago. 

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Yet if one adds public service broadcasting, France’s leading newspapers like Le Monde and the metropolitan elite, there is a growing panic-stricken realisation that in the near future Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National may be heading for power. Until now France’s elite has been in denial about this prospect, in the deluded belief that this could not happen in the country of the Rights of Man. But the writing has been on the wall for years. With the victory of nationalist right movements across the EU, from Sweden to Italy and the Netherlands, it only seems a question of time.

The EU itself is petrified at the prospect. In preparation for the 2024 elections in which the Rassemblement National is expected to wipe the board, Paris has been peppered with EU posters displaying carefree young individuals with the words: ‘Democracy, diversity and climate protection. Europe is you.’ Or ‘Unity, security and renewable energy. Europe is you’. All feature the slogan (in English): ‘You are EU’. The fear is poor youth turnout, especially the youth demographic that doesn’t yet vote for the RN (as many over the age of 25 do).

This week Le Monde featured a longitudinal study on how French attitudes to the Front National/RN have evolved over the last 40 years. The yearly barometer of French opinion shows for the first time a majority believing that the ‘extreme right’ party will soon participate in government. Le Monde with customary self-delusion puts this down to the political configuration from the 2022 legislative elections: the RN being the second largest party in an Assemblée Nationale in which President Macron is devoid of an overall majority. The paper then insists on an ‘acceleration’ since the summer: what it calls ‘the urban riots’ (when studies show the riots to have been far more widespread encompassing small market towns), the terrorist attacks in France, the reinforcement of the RN party’s president (the 28 year old, articulate, telegenic, Jordan Bardella, from an immigrant, banlieue, single-parent, background), and the national impact of the Middle East conflict. All, according to Le Monde, have given the ‘extreme right’ pride of place in public debate making its victory in the 2027 presidential election so much more likely. In short, adherence to the RN’s ideas, notably on public safety, immigration and Islam, has climbed, as has its ‘normalisation’ and credibility. What is more, the study reveals the porosity between the electorate of the traditional centre-right Républicain party and that of the RN, now viewed as the only opposition to Emmanuel Macron, even by left-wing sympathisers. The number of French who disagree with the RN’s ideas is the lowest ever at 54 per cent, while most people believe the party is no threat and 65 per cent believe it will come to power.

Now that the denial is lifting amongst France’s elite, be prepared for more dirty tricks to block Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella from power.