The fatal miscalculation that led to war in Ukraine

The war against Ukraine – or the ‘special military operation’ as it is compulsorily known in Moscow – has lasted over a fortnight.

For weeks Putin maintained a bristling encampment of forces in western Russia, southern Belarus and Crimea. He hoped this would provoke the collapse of the ‘neo-Nazi’ Ukrainian government and its comedian-president. When this failed to occur, he invaded.

Photographs show Putin sitting at the end of a long table keeping his distance from his leading associates, such as the booming-voiced foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and khaki-clad defence minister Sergei Shoigu. Gone are the days of Kremlin camaraderie: Putin now expects and gets the maximum display of deference from his followers. The war is his so-called ‘operation’ and his alone. He is performing the most dangerous high-wire act in geopolitics of this century– and he may yet fall to earth.

But though he shocked some in his coterie with his order to make war on Ukraine, most of them share his anti-western mindset – and many Russians go along with it too.