The Failure of Realism: Diagnosis Without Any Prescription

These two posts by Melanie Phillips on the situation in Egypt are very useful. Clarifying, even. They merit a response not because it’s Melanie and she’s a neighbour but because she publishes a view that’s more widely held than you might think if you only consulted the broadsheets and the BBC. It may, I think, be summarised as: Barack Obama is throwing Mubarak under the bus and we’ll soon have Tehran on the Nile.

A lot of people believe this or fear it the most probable outcome. They may, alas, be proven right. I’m struck, however, by their certainty that the Muslim Brotherhood will soon be running Egypt and, furthermore, that the Muslim Brotherhood in power will behave and speak in just the way it has in opposition. Perhaps this too will prove the case. There are, despite what Melanie implies, very few people (“dhimmi dummies” or not) who expect a “western-style” liberal democracy to emerge in full flower in Egypt.