James Forsyth James Forsyth

The EU renegotiation is now the biggest obstacle to Osborne making it to Number 10

At the start of this week, everyone was wondering how George Osborne was going to get out of trouble on tax credits, avoid a deeply damaging row over police cuts, all while still keeping to his surplus target. But thanks to the Office for Budget Responsibility upgrading its forecasts, Osborne was able to scrap the tax credit changes, protect the police budget and maintain his plan for a £10 billion surplus by the end of the parliament.

But now, an even bigger challenge awaits Osborne: the EU renegotiation. I argue in my Sun column today that it is now the biggest threat to his chances of becoming Prime Minister.

Boris Johnson and Theresa May have both kept their referendum options open, but Osborne is pretty much certain not only to back staying In but to be a key figure in that campaign.

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