The EU is pushing Hungary and Poland to the brink

Storm clouds looming over the EU’s ‘rule of law’ dispute turned a shade darker on Wednesday. The European Court of Justice rejected challenges from Hungary and Poland against a controversial budget mechanism linking adherence to democracy and EU funding. 

In an indication of the significance of the ruling for the bloc’s future, the verdict was the first ever to be broadcast live from the court. The European Commission will now come under intense pressure to apply the rule of law mechanism and withhold long-term budget funds for Hungary and Poland, along with the pandemic recovery funds it has already refused to hand over to those states.

But the escalation of the conflict will also change the political landscape in Hungary and Poland, making the looming elections even more crucial for those countries’ continued membership of the EU. In Poland, rule of law concerns relate to the independence of the judiciary, which the EU believes is threatened by legal reforms to the courts.