The EU campaign that won’t go away

Just when the whips were sighing with relief that Europe has been pushed down the agenda by Lords reform, a rather awkward letter from over 100 Tory MPs flops on to the Prime Minister’s doormat.

ConHome has the scoop this morning that John Baron has brought together a large group of MPs  who are calling for legislation to be written that ensures there will be a referendum in the next Parliament on the issue. When I spoke to Baron earlier, he told me that four more have joined, although he has agreed with colleagues that the full list of names will be known only to him and the Prime Minister.

He argues that rather than waiting for another transfer of powers to trigger the referendum that is currently enshrined in law, this Government should ensure that a plebiscite will take place in the next Parliament. ‘It would then be up to the next prime minister to push it through or to repeal it,’ he says, pointing out that it would be unlikely that a government would want to repeal a piece of legislation that he argues would have popular support.

David Cameron has already slapped down the letter. According to the Telegraph’s James Kirkup, he said: ‘I understand and share Tory MPs’ desire for a referendum. But they’ll have to make do with the existing referendum lock law.’ The problem for Cameron is that though a post-2015 referendum might not involve Liberal Democrats sitting on the Government benches at the time of the vote, the legislation required to force the vote still needs Liberal Democrat support so that it can become law in this Parliament. That is not going to be easy.

But the legislation could be a useful campaigning tool for Conservatives in the run-up to the 2015 election. If the Lib Dems do pull out early and set up a supply-and-confidence arrangement for votes, the Tories could force their hand – and that of Labour’s – by trying to introduce the legislation in that period. They could then go to their constituents as they launch their campaigns and point out that their opponents’ parties did not support efforts to ensure there would be a referendum.

If nothing else, what this letter does show is that backbenchers are growing more, not less rebellious. There were 81 rebels against the Government on the backbench motion calling for a referendum in October. Now the number of people prepared to stick their necks out within the party has grown. It’s the same with Lords reform, with party figures expecting a similar turnout in the no lobbies. But the EU is more of a long-term worry for the Prime Minister. One Tory backbencher remarked to me yesterday that they suspect their leader is pretty happy with the to-ing an fro-ing in the party over Lords reform as it gives him an excuse not to have to grapple with the thornier issue of what his backbench thinks of what is happening in Europe.

Baron for one won’t be deterred by the Prime Minister’s words this afternoon. ‘I am not on my whip’s Christmas card list,’ he jokes. ‘I am going to pursue this.’