To form a coalition, David Cameron had to give up the Prime Ministerial prerogative to determine when the election was called. But it is hard to imagine that, given the choice, he would have gone to the Palace any earlier than Monday. The Tories have merely drawn level with Labour in recent weeks and there hasn’t been a poll yet which points to him winning a majority.
This will be the most polled campaign in British history. On the day it started, depending on your choice of pollster, the Tories were four points ahead of Labour, four points behind or dead level. But one clear theme is emerging from this cacophony of data: a hung parliament is the most likely election result.
The polls suggested a hung parliament for most of the 2010 campaign. But they were not taken seriously. Many of us assumed that undecided voters would break late, and decisively, one way or the other. They didn’t.
This time round, the media is positively obsessed by hung parliament scenarios. Every party leader will be asked repeatedly who they would do a deal with, what their ‘red lines’ will be in any negotiations and whether they would prefer a full coalition to a vote-by-vote deal.
There is an element of fighting the last war in all of this. One Tory cabinet minister jokes that even if they do win a majority, the first question he’ll get on election night will still be about coalition. But the emphasis being put on a hung parliament could actually change how people vote.
Among voters who expect another hung parliament, support for Labour and the Tories is markedly lower. The British Election Study reveals that Labour and the Tories poll at 39 and 38 per cent respectively with those who think that one party will win a majority.
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