The economy isn’t as sick as we thought

It would be churlish not to celebrate revisions from the Office for National Statistics that tell us the UK is not, after all, the post-Covid invalid of the G7. Contrary to previous figures suggesting we had struggled to regain pre-pandemic levels of economic output, it turns out that our gross domestic product passed that benchmark in late 2021 and our performance has been in line with France and ahead of Germany.

Large sectoral revisions for agriculture and manufacturing tell us that statistical reporting is almost as much of a mug’s game as forecasting. But the brighter overall picture accords with the anecdotal sketch of ‘definite warming’ in consumer spending and confidence that I offered here early last month.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says the new figures prove ‘the declinist narrative about Britain… is just wrong’, while ardent Brexiteers take the opportunity to raise two cheerful fingers to our former European partners. We enter the autumn season feeling a little better about ourselves – but with no excuse for complacency.