The economic case for HS2 explained

Matthew Sinclair’s piece on high-speed rail makes two main criticisms, both of which have already been addressed in the material published earlier this week for the consultation – but I would like to explain our approach again here.
 
First, Matthew criticises our forecasts. He would prefer us not to forecast demand beyond 2026, but HS2 would be a long term investment and would bring benefits for successive generations over many decades. It would be absurd to forecast only 10 years ahead. Therefore, we have taken a longer term but still realistic view. Demand for long distance rail travel more than doubled between 1994 and 2009 – an annual growth rate of around 5 percent. We have predicted a far slower growth rate than this: approximately 1.4 percent. And, as Matthew points out, we have allowed that demand may not rise at the same rate forever and so have capped it in 2043; even though, in practice, it is highly unlikely that demand growth would simply come to a complete halt in this way.