The devastating cost of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

The next twelve months will be dominated by elections, with polls expected in at least 64 countries. Of these, there are only a few that really matter in geopolitical terms. The US elections of course, especially if won by an isolationist Donald Trump (assuming he is allowed to run). India’s parliamentary elections in April will help steer the course of a superpower for the future. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties may well change the direction of the EU in the years to come. But perhaps the most consequential one has just happened this weekend, in Taiwan, where William Lai has just been elected president.

There is significant potential danger associated with what happens following Lai’s election. In the past he has been known as an advocate for Taiwanese independence: this is a redline that Beijing has said that, if crossed, would lead to assertive action being taken against what it considers to be a ‘renegade province’.