The Democrats’ challenge: Turning the election from a referendum on Obama into a choice between Obama and McCain

Everything this year seems to have aligned for the Democrats. The incumbent Republican president is deeply unpopular, more than three quarters of voters think the country is on the wrong track, the economy is in trouble and the conservative coalition is fracturing. But still the presidential race is tight; there aren’t more than a couple of points in it. The explanation for this is quite simple: the election has moved from being a referendum on the Bush years to a referendum on Barack Obama. The extent to which Obama dominates the media coverage of the campaign means that the most important thing in deciding your vote is what you think of Obama. This is what explains why quite so many Clinton Democrats are supporting McCain. Cleverly, the McCain campaign has realised this works to its favour.