As Fraser observed at the weekend, Alistair Darling has a point: it is not as bad as was feared. The new Office for Budget Responsibility agrees, reducing estimated public borrowing to £155bn 2010/11. Still,
it’s hardly a picnic is it? And I wonder what response Darling will get if he presses Cameron and Osborne for an apology. His growth forecasts have been downgraded to 2.6 percent and the
structural deficit is greater than he admitted to – Paul Mason reckons it’s about
£5bn more than was forecast.
Osborne’s hands are tied by these figures; his calculations will be based on them. There is, of course, the possibility that the OBR’s predictions are no more accurate than the Treasury’s soothsayings. For example, the British Chambers of Commerce argue that these figures remain on the optimistic
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