The death of investment banking will lead to the rebirth of something better

Oh woe. Investment bank profits are evaporating after a disastrous contraction of trading revenues reflecting zero-to-negative interest rates, weak commodity prices and worries about China and other emerging markets. Not to mention the stagnant eurozone, the possibility of Brexit, increased capital requirements (which will rise further for banks that must ‘ringfence’ their trading operations) and the demoralising impact of regulatory moves to cap and force clawback of bonuses.

Across the Atlantic, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi and Bank of America have felt the chill, as have Credit Suisse, UBS and Deutsche in Europe. Barclays, the last British contender in this arena, was expecting a stormy AGM this week as shareholders — stung by a slashed dividend, a pathetic share price and a weak first quarter — lose patience with the umpteenth restructuring under new-broom chief executive Jes Staley.

Pundits are now debating whether — eight years after the fall of Lehman — we’re witnessing the death rattle of an entire sector rather than a seasonal setback amplified by a regulatory crackdown.