James Forsyth James Forsyth

The dark clouds threatening Brexit

A sub-Norway outcome would make it very difficult to deliver the economic upsides of quitting the EU

issue 29 July 2017

It’s summertime and the living is easy… unless you’re a civil servant working on Brexit. Whitehall has recognised that the UK needs to step up its preparations for leaving the EU and to offer greater certainty about the country’s immediate future. A big speech is planned for September, probably by the Prime Minister, which will set out more of the government’s thinking on the issue.

One aspect of Brexit that urgently needs clarity is how Britain will leave the European Union. Theresa May has long been open to a transitional period or, as she terms it, an implementation phase. But since the election, the government’s enthusiasm for this has become far more explicit. There is now pretty much total cabinet agreement — even if the transition means free movement continuing temporarily. But for any transition to smooth out the Brexit process, it will need to be agreed well in advance. Given that the Article 50 clock is already ticking, and that any transition agreement will have to be signed off by the EU, this must be one of the UK’s negotiating priorities come the autumn.

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