We are witnessing what could well be the last few weeks of a constrained Labour party. Sir Keir Starmer is saying as little as possible about his agenda and is instead listing what he won’t do (raise income tax, etc). He is rightly fearful that the Conservatives may do better than the opinion polls suggest. That has happened in the past. There may be a ‘shy Tory’ effect in the polls as there was in 1992, 2015 and 2019.
Who would admit to voting Conservative in the current climate? Regardless, power now looks certain to come Starmer’s way – perhaps with a majority bigger than that of any modern prime minister. It doesn’t much matter that he has not enthused voters with his promises. His strategy has been to hope that the Conservative campaign plays out in a series of blunders – and so far Rishi Sunak has obliged. Even Tory ministers who are knocking on doors are telling voters that Sunak will lose power and are merely suggesting that the local Conservative candidate would be good in opposition.
A Labour majority of just under 300 seats would be a licence not just to govern but to rewire the state
At first, these government ministers felt nervous – even disloyal – peddling this line of argument.
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