The Spectator

The cure to this crisis can be found in our communities

issue 21 March 2020

For the Chancellor to produce an emergency bailout package just six days after delivering his Budget is an extraordinary state of affairs, but such is the fast-moving nature of the coronavirus crisis. The virus itself is growing along the expected trajectory, testing the limits of the NHS — but no one could have modelled the economic response. The decision by the government to shut down large tracts of the economy and ask workers to stay at home — with the prospect of this lasting for months — will deliver a shock far greater than the economic crash of 2008. Its effects can already be seen everywhere.

This week Capital Economics said the economy could shrink by 15 per cent over the space of a few weeks. That would be a contraction without parallel in modern times. By contrast, the last recession saw a peak-to-trough fall in the economy of just over 6 per cent.

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