For the Chancellor to produce an emergency bailout package just six days after delivering his Budget is an extraordinary state of affairs, but such is the fast-moving nature of the coronavirus crisis. The virus itself is growing along the expected trajectory, testing the limits of the NHS — but no one could have modelled the economic response. The decision by the government to shut down large tracts of the economy and ask workers to stay at home — with the prospect of this lasting for months — will deliver a shock far greater than the economic crash of 2008. Its effects can already be seen everywhere.
This week Capital Economics said the economy could shrink by 15 per cent over the space of a few weeks. That would be a contraction without parallel in modern times. By contrast, the last recession saw a peak-to-trough fall in the economy of just over 6 per cent. Today, entire sections of the workforce find themselves grounded and smaller companies are faced with the prospect of no customers and no income — and no money with which to pay staff. Mr Sunak was right to offer £350 billion of loans, just as Donald Trump was right to back an $850 billion stimulus. Help now is needed to prevent longer-lasting damage later.
If we want local and independent stores to be there when this crisis is over, we must support them now
The economy is crouching, not imploding. After the 9/11 and 7/7 terrorist attacks we were encouraged to go out to restaurants, bars and shops to support the economy. In this case the government is asking us to do precisely the opposite: to stay indoors. Moreover, it has hinted that its policy of social distancing could last many months. But once it is over, things should improve quickly: there is plenty of reason to expect a V-shaped recovery, as millions return to work.

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