It’s that moment of supreme uncertainty. We do however know the question. Is this a regular sell-off, with the S&P500 nudging into bear market territory, but then steadying in the next few months before a gradual recovery? Or is this a true crash, akin to those of October 1929, October 1987, October 2008, or most recently March 2020, in which case we are less than halfway down the peak?
The strategists have of course been crawling over the data of previous crashes, but the analogies never really fit. There has not been a trade war akin to what may be developing now since the 1930s, when the world economy was both less integrated and more fragile.
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