The Conservative Party need to look beyond Brexit if they are to survive

The Conservative Party was founded 185 years ago and may not survive the next five. YouGov and Opinium both put the Tories in third place and on less than 20 per cent of the vote. They managed just 8.8 per cent in the European election, coming fifth behind the Greens and losing all but four of their MEPs. The primary cause of la crise actuelle is the government’s failure to deliver Brexit and it is to this which much of the Tory leadership conversation is addressed. However, there are other factors, structural and social, which have depressed the Tory vote and candidates to replace Theresa May are keen to prove they can win voters back to their party’s tarnished brand.

There is one demographic in particular they need to understand better. These voters list their main priorities post-Brexit as the economy, crime and the NHS; less than a third cite immigration. Most want current levels of tax and public spending to continue, while one-fifth want more spent on services even if it means raising taxes.