The conflict that could spark a war

History repeats itself — but sometimes in reverse. Only a pessimist would have predicted a global pandemic followed by a growing regional conflict. And yet the ongoing fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan — and its accompanying web of political ambition, ethnic tensions and territorial disputes — leads to uncomfortable comparisons with the start of the first world war.

That conflict began after Austria threatened Serbia, resulting in Russia’s pledge to protect its fellow Slavs against outside aggression. Germany assured the world, and Russia, that it would not tolerate hostility towards Austria. France informed Germany that it would come to Russia’s defence if it came under attack. Britain was something of a wild card, promising only to protect Belgian neutrality in the event of a conflict, as well as warning against those who considered waging war in British waters.

In this 2020 reboot, the Balkans have been swapped for the Caucasus, and the principal players have been recast. The dispute this time is between Azerbaijan and Armenia, over a territory internationally recognised as belonging to the former but populated by people from the latter.