Pakistan’s retaliatory military strike on suspected militant bases in Iran – in response to Iranian attacks in Pakistani territory – can only escalate tensions between the two countries. It will also ring alarm bells elsewhere across an increasingly jittery Middle East but also further afield in India and China. The Chinese have friendly relations with both Pakistan and Iran. India, meanwhile, is always on high alert whenever Pakistan’s military forces flex their muscles. All in all, there is a real danger that more and more countries will be sucked into the volatile and unpredictable vortex of the Middle East conflict.
The Pakistani military action follows Iran’s attacks on the Jaish ul-Adl, a jihadi militant group, in the Balochistan province border area. It is the first time Iran has targeted a group inside Pakistani territory. Both countries accuse each other of allowing militants to operate from each other’s jurisdictions.
There is a danger that more countries will be sucked into the volatile vortex of the Middle East conflict
A swift response was always on the cards after the Pakistanis signalled their fury with Iran. Pakistan recalled its ambassador from Tehran following the strike. It also instructed Iran’s envoy, who was overseas, not to return. Pakistan’s acting prime minister, Anwaar ul-haq Kakar, rushed home from the World Economic Forum in Davos. He will have been left embarrassed that he actually met the Iranian foreign minister for talks on the sidelines of the Davos summit, just hours before Iran fired missiles and explosive drones into Pakistan.
The diplomatic displeasure of the Pakistanis has now been followed up by the inevitable military response, something Pakistan’s all-powerful army – as well as public opinion – will have demanded. The generals cannot afford to allow the impression to take hold that any country (and in this, its rival and enemy India as much as Iran) can launch missiles into Pakistani territory and not face repercussions.
The Pakistani foreign ministry said it ‘undertook a series of highly co-ordinated and specifically targeted precision strikes against terrorist hide-outs’ in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan province, killing several militants. Iran confirmed the attack on an Iranian border village, leaving nine people, including three women and four children, dead. Now it is the turn of Iran to signal its unhappiness at the latest escalation. The Iranians condemned the strikes and duly summoned the Pakistan charge d’affaires in Tehran to express their displeasure.
The military tit-for-tat between Iran and Pakistan is an added complication to a Middle East conflict that is threatening to spill out of control. Ever since war broke out between Israel and Hamas in October the key question has always been how to stop the conflict from spreading. The warning lights are now flashing red everywhere across the region. Iran has already launched similar strikes in northern Iraq and Syria. Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continue to target shipping in the Red Sea. American forces in Syria and Iraq have been targeted by militants linked to Iran. A stand-off between Iran and a nuclear-armed Pakistan is unhelpful to say the least.
China, an ally of both countries, has called for restraint. The Chinese plea is not without a heavy dose of self-interest: China has invested billions of dollars in Pakistan as part of its Belt and Road infrastructure project. Mao Ning, China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman, said the Chinese were ‘willing to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation if both sides so wish.’ Others too will be hoping that both Iran and Pakistan – effectively even after military strikes into each other’s territory – see sense and step back from the brink rather than escalate matters.
The bigger question remains this. What are the Iranians up to? It is their military strike on Pakistan that has triggered this dangerous stand-off. The Iranians chose to act in the days immediately after similar military strikes in Syria and Iraq, and at a time when their Houthi proxies were engaged in attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. The Iranian leadership, vulnerable at home, is choosing to flex its muscles across the region, lashing out at its perceived enemies, and determined to sow unrest. The consequences that flow from this increasingly erratic behaviour on the part of the mullahs are anyone’s guess.
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