The choice Cameron faces now that we’re over the cliff

British politics is currently suspended in one of those strange Road Runner moments, when we’ve run over the cliff but haven’t looked down. From April 2011, spending on public services will start to fall by a cumulative 7 percent over three years, according to Budget 2009. And given its fairytale economic assumptions (trampoline recovery, etc) the real cuts could be far greater. If the Tories protect health (as they say they will), then the cuts will be a cumulative 10 percent over transport, defence, education, police etc. This will dominate the next parliament. Huge schools cuts, huge military cuts – and all the time at the risk of the credit rating agencies pulling the plug. We don’t have to wait for the Tory manifesto, we know the parameters. The only variable is whether this 10 percent cut over three years will be more like 15 percent. This is not insider information, but a basic economic fact, apparent to anyone with p226 of the Budget and a calculator.