‘Only the higher-than-expected numbers of migrants coming to the UK under the post-Brexit migration regime adds materially to prospects for potential output growth over the coming five years relative to the assumptions that we made in March.’
That’s from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) assessment accompanying the Autumn Statement. It’s a pretty striking line: the state’s official analyst of the public finances says that the only good thing to happen to the UK economy since March is higher immigration.
How much higher? In March, the OBR produced an economic forecast that assumed net migration would run at around 130,000 a year for the next five years. Now it puts that figure at just over 200,000.
Why? The OBR says it now realises that Britain’s post-Brexit immigration system is fairly liberal, especially to non-EU migrants. Implied in its forecast is the OBR’s belief that ministers will keep it that way too.
Without net migration, Britain would currently be facing even bigger tax rises and even bigger spending cuts than it is now
The OBR gets privileged access to government thinking and planning; its assessment of future migration numbers is based, in part, on its conversations with the Home Office’s Migration Advisory Committee.
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in