China: what next? Around the time of the millennium, I wrote that during this century, many of the world’s great questions would be answered in Chinese characters and that great fortunes would be made, and lost, in the China trade. That is one prophecy which might hold good.
No one ever says that they could take or leave Maotai
Churchill said that the longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward, and it is worth following the Chinese example and thinking in epochs. Consider one of the most significant might-have-beens in history: the career of the 15th-century eunuch admiral Zheng He. He commanded an enormous fleet and made seven expeditions to Africa and deserves to be at least as well known as Henry the Navigator, except that his prodigious exploits left little mark on history. That said, one wonders if the current Chinese almost neo-colonial involvement in Africa is a conscious attempt to pick up where the admiral left off – or merely an unconscious one.
Yet Zheng He left no legacy, only a legend. By the time of his death, the emperor had summoned the warships back to home waters, so an enormous imperial opportunity was lost. But suppose that instead of sailing south-west, the admiral had ventured north-east, arriving in California. He might have reported back that there existed abundant fertile land, populated only by a few savages. Also suppose a bold emperor who could easily have mobilised soldiers and settlers. By the time we arrived in Virginia, the whole of North America would have been a Chinese colony. That is a mighty ‘what if’.
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