The Chinese lantern is dimming

Does anyone believe Chinese GDP figures? Officially, the economy is roaring at 9 per cent a year. But thanks to WikiLeaks we know that Chinese Politburo member Li Keqiang thinks that the official GDP data is ‘for reference only’ — and that if you want to know how fast China is growing you should look at electricity consumption, rail cargo volume and bank lending etc.

So today’s announcement of China’s electricity consumption figures for April showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7 per cent is quite significant. This is growth beyond George Osborne’s wildest dreams, but by recent Chinese standards is pretty paltry. Last year China’s electricity consumption grew 12 per cent. Put into historical perspective, this 3.7 per cent growth is more striking still:

The picture is clear: since the end of 2011 things have gone quite soggy. Coming after the Chinese monetary data Ambrose Evans-Pritchard referred to yesterday, the sense of gloom may be spreading beyond the West.