The biggest question in British politics at the moment is whether the massive poll leads Labour has over the Conservative party will hold. With Labour polling as high as 51 per cent and the Tories as low as 21 per cent in the past month, the next election could see a 1997 style result – or even worse, from a Conservative perspective. The prospect of existential oblivion can’t be totally discounted.
That’s what makes yesterday’s City of Chester by-election so interesting. It was Sunak’s first electoral contest as prime minister. A chance to see if he could beat the bad news expressed in every national survey of voting intent. A moment for him to show that things aren’t as bad for the Conservatives as they seem.
The answer from Chester was brutal for the Tories and their leader. A thumping victory for the Labour party. If the by-election result had reflected the national polls, Labour should have won 62-26.
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