The cause of the latest spike of coronavirus cases in Bolton points to why we need continued vigilance against Covid-19, and why it would be highly surprising if we were not now set on an upward national trend.
The locus of the Bolton surge was some pubs, and possibly one in particular. And it may be connected to young people socialising after returning from higher risk holiday destinations. This is an important phenomenon. It means the outbreak is correlated with life in general returning to semi-normal, rather than to specific cultural or localised factors.
The point is that the data shows earlier summer surges in parts of the Midlands and North West have been disproportionately manifested in Asian communities or in specific factories. But with children returning to schools, some students returning to universities and some workers going back to ‘workplaces’, there are now national changes – rather than just local structural factors – that will increase the rate of infection.
So the big Covid-19 question is whether the UK is just two or three weeks behind the surge in cases we are seeing in France
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