By-election wins rarely presage great victories at a general election. If they did, the Liberal Democrats would enjoy perpetual government. But the fact they are not a forecast for national contests does not mean by-elections are always insignificant. In fact, they provide a good reflection of public mood at a given time and, particularly, sentiment towards the governing party. This has been true throughout recent history and remains true today – despite the excitement that will be generated by a Scottish Labour victory over the SNP at the coming by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
The current MP, Margaret Ferrier, faces being removed by her constituents. She has been sentenced to 270 hours community service and suspended from the House of Commons after admitting travelling home despite knowing she had Covid. Meanwhile, the SNP itself is increasingly troubled nationally. A fractious leadership contest to succeed Nicola Sturgeon exposed serious divisions within the party, while the new leader, Humza Yousaf, has struggled to make his mark amid the ongoing and dramatic police investigation into the SNP’s finances.
Scotland’s most prominent by-elections over the previous century are a good indicator of the impact electoral contests, such as the looming one in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, can have. In one of the most famous contests, the SNP’s Winnie Ewing won the 1967 Hamilton by-election from the governing Labour party. This was a seismic moment in Scottish politics that helped to legitimise the nationalist cause, but it did not signal a significant shift in the political landscape. Ewing would lose her seat at the general election three years later and the SNP would struggle to gain a consistent foothold at Westminster for decades.
The same is also true of Roy Jenkins, who won the Glasgow Hillhead constituency for the nascent SDP in a by-election in 1982. Again, the by-election saw defeat for the (in this case, Conservative) government and helped to legitimise Jenkins’ breakaway movement, as well as entrench his claim to leadership of it. Yet, while Jenkins would retain his seat at the 1983 General Election and the SDP would garner an impressive 25.4 per cent of the national vote, it did not achieve an electoral breakthrough.
Any attempt to transplant Scottish Labour’s victory onto other constituencies to predict a possible resurgence at the next general election is a fool’s errand.
Even Winston Churchill’s two by-election victories in Dundee, taking place in 1908 and 1917, did not prove much use in predicting future electoral performance. Despite Churchill winning a substantial victory in the first contest, which helped save his cabinet career in the process, the Liberal party would go on to lose and then fail to regain its majority in the two general elections of 1910.
Meanwhile, although Churchill’s 1917 victory in Dundee (fought against the anti-war Prohibitionist, Edwin Scrymgeour) was a useful indicator of the British people’s desire to fight on against Germany, it clearly did not anticipate Churchill’s humbling by Scrymgeour at the 1922 election just a few years later. As we approach the now almost certain by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, it is important to keep this history in mind.
Scottish Labour is clearly enjoying a good moment, with a YouGov poll this week suggesting the party is in line to win 23 seats from the SNP at the next election and it can confidently expect to win Rutherglen and Hamilton West before then.
This buoyant mood within the party is perhaps best exemplified by the search for a by-election candidate for the constituency itself. Even just six months ago, it would have been almost impossible to barrack, bribe or bully someone into contesting a seat such as Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which has a large SNP majority. But now the candidate selection has become so competitive that the two relevant local parties have felt compelled to complain about the process.
Rising stars and old hands alike have recognised that winning the Scottish Labour selection – as Michael Shanks, a local teacher, now has – is a fast track to becoming an MP. Yet Scottish Labour must be wary of misreading any victory when it comes. By-elections are often influenced by local and national factors that significantly affect the outcome, and this one will be no different.
Of course, any attempt to transplant Scottish Labour’s victory onto other constituencies to predict a possible resurgence at the next general election is a fool’s errand. But that should not detract from the significance of the result itself. A Scottish Labour victory in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will reflect – like many of the prominent by-elections before it – dissatisfaction with the governing party and a willingness to consider voting for others. For a party that has spent almost a decade and a half in the doldrums, that alone will count as a significant moment for Scottish Labour.
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