The by-election that could shape Scotland’s political landscape

By-election wins rarely presage great victories at a general election. If they did, the Liberal Democrats would enjoy perpetual government. But the fact they are not a forecast for national contests does not mean by-elections are always insignificant. In fact, they provide a good reflection of public mood at a given time and, particularly, sentiment towards the governing party. This has been true throughout recent history and remains true today – despite the excitement that will be generated by a Scottish Labour victory over the SNP at the coming by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.

The current MP, Margaret Ferrier, faces being removed by her constituents. She has been sentenced to 270 hours community service and suspended from the House of Commons after admitting travelling home despite knowing she had Covid. Meanwhile, the SNP itself is increasingly troubled nationally. A fractious leadership contest to succeed Nicola Sturgeon exposed serious divisions within the party, while the new leader, Humza Yousaf, has struggled to make his mark amid the ongoing and dramatic police investigation into the SNP’s finances.