In one sense David Cameron is lucky that the Conservatives do not enter 2014 with a lead in the polls. If they did, the Prime Minister would be under pressure for stitching up the Fixed Term Parliaments Act with Nick Clegg, thereby denying himself the chance of doing what all strong governments have done over the past 35 years, with unfailing success: going to the country after four years. Barring a vote of no confidence, we already know the date of the next election: 7 May 2015.
With the exception of John Major in 1992, no Prime Minister who waited five years has won re-election since Clement Attlee in 1950 — and he only clung to power with a miserable five-seat majority. David Cameron not only has to overcome this jinx; he must also start from a much poorer position than previous prime ministers, having failed to win an outright majority last time around.
The coalition begins this year with every reason to cheer. The triple-dip recession on which Ed Balls bet his credibility never happened; neither, after statistical revision, did the second dip. Moreover, the UK economy is growing faster than that of any other major industrial power.
No one should be fooled into thinking, however, that this will necessarily translate into a Tory advantage at the ballot box. Cameron and those who surround him often behave as if they will be swept back into power without much effort. But complacency cost them the last election. And as in 1997, it may be the opposition party that benefits from good times. Then, Britain was enjoying arguably its most benign phase of the past century: the economy was growing but not on the back of excessive debt; stock markets and house prices were rising, but not in the mad way which was to follow.
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