The big idea that can win the Tories the next election

In one sense David Cameron is lucky that the Conservatives do not enter 2014 with a lead in the polls. If they did, the Prime Minister would be under pressure for stitching up the Fixed Term Parliaments Act with Nick Clegg, thereby denying himself the chance of doing what all strong governments have done over the past 35 years, with unfailing success: going to the country after four years. Barring a vote of no confidence, we already know the date of the next election: 7 May 2015.

With the exception of John Major in 1992, no Prime Minister who waited five years has won re-election since Clement Attlee in 1950 — and he only clung to power with a miserable five-seat majority. David Cameron not only has to overcome this jinx; he must also start from a much poorer position than previous prime ministers, having failed to win an outright majority last time around.