The battle of Eastleigh will be bloody

This week’s Cabinet meeting was a deceptively straightforward affair. Conservative and Liberal Democrat ministers met as usual, and discussed economic competitiveness and their priorities for the next Queen’s speech. It was a convivial gathering of coalition allies. But no one mentioned the elephant in the room: the Eastleigh by-election, a contest that will pit minister against minister. As one Cabinet member puts it: ‘This will be very difficult to handle, as both sides really have to win.’

This by-election, triggered by Lib Dem MP Chris Huhne standing down after admitting in court that he perverted the course of justice over his 2003 speeding offence, will be seen as a test of whether the Conservatives are capable of winning seats from the Lib Dems — and therefore a majority in 2015. The party hierarchy has decided that their best chance of triumphing outright is to depose many of their coalition partners: half of the Tories’ 40 target seats are Lib Dem-held.