The Afghan state was dying before the Taliban took over

To understand how Afghanistan is going to change in the future, you have to first understand what the ‘Islamic Republic’ established by the United States was like. Even before the Taliban took over, Afghanistan’s democracy had been deteriorating for some time, with three presidential elections in a row ending in bitter controversies over vote rigging, manipulation and fraud on a massive scale. The parliamentary elections attracted less attention but were no less controversial. Voter participation had declined constantly and in 2019, when the latest elections were held, turnout probably did not exceed 10 per cent, although it is hard to know the exact figure.

Persistent insecurity and high levels of corruption weakened the legitimacy of the Republic. From the start, it resembled an oligarchy. The original Bonn agreement, which created the new Afghan state, allowed its signatories, that is the main anti-Taliban factions and personalities, to effectively operate outside the law.