The AfD will be a thorn in Merz’s side

Alice Weidel, the leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, didn’t mince her words. Speaking immediately after the German federal election on national television in Berlin on what’s known as ‘the leaders round’, she claimed that the mainstream conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) merely won a ‘pyrrhic victory’. Its head, Friedrich Merz, had no real choice, Weidel said, but to form a coalition with her radical right party (which scored over 20 per cent of the vote). A three- party coalition, she added, would be ‘a millstone around Merz’s neck’.

Merz was having none of it. The likely next chancellor of Germany responded that a coalition with Weidel is ‘absolutely excluded’. Alas, Merz did not win a mandate. At just less than 30 per cent, the Christian Democrats in combination with their sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which governs – or, if you prefer, rules – Bavaria, scored just well enough to form a coalition with the Social Democrat party (SDP). For the CSU, the idea of forming an alliance at a federal level with the Green party is anathema. Markus Söder, the leader of the CSU, explicitly ruled it out at a rousing campaign event with Merz on Saturday at the Löwenbräukeller, where an oompah band lustily played Bavarian favourites. The crowd was jubilant when Merz appeared on stage to lash into the German left and promise what amounted to a new golden age in Germany.

Fast forward to today and the mood has changed considerably. At CSU headquarters in Munich, the party stalwarts struggled to disguise their concern about the results. Elections expert Antonia Ferrier told me that ‘Germany is a country under stress’. When Merz spoke, he did not revel in victory but emphasised the hard work that lay ahead. Angelika Niebler, a member of the European parliament, explained that the only way for the conservative parties to combat the AfD was to pursue a different migration and economic policy as quickly as possible. Merz himself said that it was his ‘absolute priority’ to create an independent European fighting ability and to counter Russia.

But will it happen? With the classically liberal Free Democrats (FDP) failing to make the 5 per cent hurdle into the Bundestag, the CDU may have to rely upon the Greens and the SDP to form a viable coalition. Meanwhile, the AfD will be making political hay. It will enjoy the luxury of being able to criticise any new government at will.

Whether the tech billionaire Elon Musk, who repeatedly adjured Germans to support the far right, will be happy with the results is an open question. If there was an unexpected winner of the election, it was the far-left party, Die Linke, that scored almost 9 per cent, mostly thanks to Musk stirring up hostility toward America, particularly with his broadsides about overcoming Germany’s dark past.

The so-called ‘firewall’ against including the AfD – a self-imposed ban by the other parties on collaborating with it in any way – will remain intact for now. Donald Trump seemed happy with Merz’s victory. As usual he made it all about himself, tweeting that ‘This is a great day for Germany, and for the United States of America under the leadership of a gentleman named Donald J. Trump. Congratulations to all – many more victories to follow!!!’ Good news for Germany and even better for Merz.