The 2015 conundrum

One of the striking things about the next election is how what is going on at the macro level looks so different from what is happening at a micro level. On the macro front, things seem to be moving the Tories’ way. The economy is growing at a good clip and that is set to continue until polling day and David Cameron has a considerable advantage on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. But to return to the micro, it is easier to see seats where Labour might gain from the Tories rather than the other way round. Ask even the most optimistic Tories what constituencies they might win to give them a double-digit majority, and they come up short.

The crucial question is whether these marginals are a lagging indicator or not. Or, does the political geography of Britain now mean that the Tories will run up huge majorities in their own seats but miss out in the key battlegrounds.