Ten bellwether seats to watch on election night

It’s easy to imagine prime ministers on election night, either nervously grinning or groaning in despair when the results for Dartford are announced. In every election since 1964, the London constituency has voted for the party which went on to win nationwide. It, along with nine other constituencies (such as Watford, Reading West and Worcester) are the true bellwether seats, which have predicted the national mood since the 1980s.

This election though, it’s harder to know if these seats will accurately reflect the final election result. Boris Johnson’s Tories are hoping to flip the electoral map, abandoning their old heartlands and affluent Remainers in favour of Northern and Midland Labour strongholds which voted Leave in 2016. Last night’s YouGov MRP analysis of the polls, which suggested we could be in hung parliament territory, showed that these ‘Red Wall’ seats are no longer trinkets for the Conservatives, but essential to their success – if the Tories want a majority, they will have to make inroads in seats that have been Labour’s for decades.