Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff and Sunetra Gupta

Sweden’s lessons for the UK’s third wave

The UK has successfully achieved the ultimate goal in tackling the pandemic: protecting the vulnerable. 

In the first week of May, the UK recorded the lowest number of new cases since last August. This was met with excitement after such a devastating winter. The government therefore prepared for ‘freedom day’ on 21 June, when lockdown restrictions would finally be lifted. However, they reversed course as cases rose again, postponing it to 19 July. Over the last two months, infections have surged, with no real way of stopping them.

Throughout the pandemic, a rise in cases has been followed by a rise in deaths two to three weeks later, but that did not happen this time. Cases increased at a similar rate to the autumn of 2020, but deaths have been flat and near-zero since April. The UK is sufficiently protected.

As Covid becomes endemic, it will no longer pose the same danger to people that it once did

What is the scientific basis for this success? While anyone can get infected by Covid, there is more than a thousand-fold gulf in the risk of death between older and younger people.

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