Sunak is taking a gamble on the Protocol

Westminster is back to the Brexit wars this week. Once again, a Conservative leader is trying to finalise a deal with Brussels while facing warnings from their own side that it could prove a compromise too far. On Friday, there was much fanfare that a new deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol could be imminent. Rishi Sunak flew to Northern Ireland to meet with the DUP – where talks proved amicable. Then the Prime Minister met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on the fringes of the Munich security conference.

However, since then a string of Tory MPs have spoken publicly to raise their concerns and Sunak has been warned that up to 100 of his own MPs could rebel against any deal that is struck. While a vote on a deal isn’t necessary, both MPs and government aides accept they could end up having one regardless. Keir Starmer has already said Labour would back any deal – yet it’s risky for any Tory prime minister to get their plans through on opposition votes.

For now, the most common refrain among these politicians – including Boris Johnson and former levelling up secretary Simon Clarke – is that it would be a mistake to abandon the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill legislation that Sunak has put on pause.