Stopping Assad

The situation in Syria grows worse by the minute. President Assad seems to have taken the UN Security Council’s deadlock as carte blanche to launch an all-out attack on Homs. Russia looks like she wants to mediate, while Turkey is preparing a new initiative with countries who oppose the Syrian government, a sort of anti-Assad group. Meanwhile, the Gulf States have expelled all Syrian ambassadors.

The chances of a ceasefire are low, as are the prospects of a military intervention. Russia has an interest in persuading Assad to abdicate, but can Assad be persuaded? Syria still has friends in Iraq and Iran, where the governments are supporting the regime both materially and financially. And, while the West wants Assad removed it is not willing to act: it won’t arm the rebels and it won’t intervene militarily without a UN resolution. In this context, the Syrian leadership may think that the situation is turning in their favour.