Stay or leave, Europe is sinking anyway

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[/audioplayer]As Tory ministers wrestle with their consciences before the EU referendum, an intriguing new argument for voting to stay has emerged. Rather conveniently, it resolves the conflict between principle and personal loyalty to David Cameron that several members of the Cabinet are wrestling with. It goes like this: the European Union is going to collapse in the next ten to 15 years. So, you can vote for Britain to stay in, safe in the knowledge that the EU will be gone within a generation.

Some ministers add another layer to this argument. They claim that Britain leaving would precipitate the demise of the European Union and it is not in our interest to be blamed for that. Better to stay and let the EU collapse of its own accord.

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Monica Porter

The black cab is dying out. Good.

It is tempting to dismiss this as sophistry; simply a cover for doing what is politically expedient in the referendum and siding with the PM. Certainly, it gets these ministers out of a hole. But it isn’t only British Tories trying to resolve their referendum dilemma who think that the whole European project is in danger. It is a view that is increasingly shared by influential European politicians.

What has prompted this pessimism is the migration crisis. This is a far greater challenge than the travails of the euro and it is testing solidarity among EU members to the limit. Only 414 refugees have been relocated under a scheme that was meant to disperse 160,000 across Europe, and the whole Schengen open-borders system of is now on the verge of suspension.

The proposed suspension of Schengen for two years would be a huge blow to the EU.