What does a party get after nearly two decades in office, collapsing public services, an internal civil war and a £2 million police investigation? Re-election, again – perhaps with an even bigger majority. Last spring, under the hapless Humza Yousaf, the SNP’s grip on power in Scotland finally appeared to be loosening. But eight months on, the nationalists have managed a remarkable turnaround. The party now has a 15-point poll lead and it looks as though John Swinney will remain in Bute House at next year’s Holyrood elections. ‘The caretaker manager has got the job permanently,’ says one rival.
The party’s change in fortunes owes less to Swinney’s skill as an operator and more to the spectacular collapse of Scottish Labour. As delegates meet in Glasgow for their party conference this weekend, the mood could scarcely be more different to their last shindig. Back then, Labour was topping the polls in both Edinburgh and London. Anas Sarwar, the Scottish Labour leader, was hailed as ‘the next King of Scotland’. When Labour consigned the Tories to history on 4 July, he pledged to do the same with the SNP. ‘The strategy was to ride on Keir Starmer’s coat-tails to success,’ reflects one party veteran. ‘But the problem of riding on someone’s coat-tails is if they go off a cliff, you’re going off with them.’
Scottish Labour’s woes are a tale of two Budgets. The first, in October, was delivered by Rachel Reeves; the second, in December by the SNP’s Shona Robison, Scotland’s Finance Secretary. Reeves gave Scotland an extra £3.4 billion in new funds; Robison duly spent the money and demanded even more.
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